Untold Greatness

The hype machine surrounding Michael Vick is reaching completely irrational proportions. Steve Corkran describes Vick as "the guiding force behind his team's 9-3 record this season and the architect of some of the most mind-boggling displays of talent the game has ever seen." In recounting the story of the effective Tomlinson-for-Vick draft day trade between the Chargers and the Falcons, Corkran writes of the "prospect of untold greatness" Atlanta saw in Vick. He describes Vick as "one of the most-hyped players ever and someone billed as talented enough to change the quarterback position" and closes by musing on Vick going into the Hall of Fame.

Oh brother. Vick is in his fourth season in the NFL. Here is how Vick's performance compares with some other randomly selected quarterbacks in their fourth year:

Player Games Rating TDs INTs Yards/Game Vick 12 78.5 11 10 164.9 P. Manning 16 84.1 26 23 258.2 Favre 16 90.7 33 14 242.6 Culpepper 16 75.3 18 23 240.8 McNabb 10 86.0 17 6 228.9 Brady 16 85.9 23 12 226.3 Bledsoe 16 83.7 27 15 255.4 A. Brooks 16 88.8 24 8 221.6

I've tried to choose a range of QBs, from the greats (Manning, Favre) to the average (Brooks). This table shows that, at a comparable stage of development, Vick is the only QB in the list with under 200 yards per game, has the fewest touchdowns and almost the lowest rating. Based on this comparison, Vick would hardly look like a player with "some of the most mind-boggling displays of talent the game has ever seen." Now, if I add rushing numbers to that list, certainly Vick will come out head and shoulders above the rest. If Vick is changing the quarterback position, as Corkran says, he's changing into the running back position, and that's already taken.

Now, am I saying Vick is a bad quarterback or will never amount to much? No. Who knows how he will develop. But, let's wait for him to develop into a quarterback putting up at least respectable numbers before bringing up the Hall of Fame. A future Hall of Famer should at least have better stats than Aaron Brooks and Tim Rattay.